I already released my NL playoffs bracket on Saturday because the whole bracket was already decided. To see that bracket complete with odds and descriptions click here. Below is the complete bracket as well as odds and reasoning for each of the AL teams as well as the world series.
Wild Card: Astros beat Yankees 66% The Astros have been doing very well lately and with the Yankees have been 29 and 31 since August 1. Also Dallas Keuchel could win this years AL Cy Young, and the Yankees are 5 and 6 in Masahiro Tanaka's last eleven starts. This is however only a one game baseball series, and therefore there is very little certainty. In the MLB on average if the best team plays the worst team in one game there is a 25.6% chance of an upset, but in the NFL there is only a 2.6% chance of an upset, and in the NBA there is a 6.1% chance of an upset. That is why baseball is the underdog's sport. |
ALDS: Royals beat Astros
53%
The Royals and Astros have had great seasons with well rounded teams that rank well in both pitching and hitting, and in many ways the Astros are like the team the Royals had last year because they are full of young players and were not able to bring in established stars but used a core of homegrown players to get this far. They also enter the playoffs as a wild card team, however their bullpen is not as strong and they do not have that same momentum or spirit that the Royals had coming into last years playoffs so I think we are more likely to see the Royals go to the ALCS again.
53%
The Royals and Astros have had great seasons with well rounded teams that rank well in both pitching and hitting, and in many ways the Astros are like the team the Royals had last year because they are full of young players and were not able to bring in established stars but used a core of homegrown players to get this far. They also enter the playoffs as a wild card team, however their bullpen is not as strong and they do not have that same momentum or spirit that the Royals had coming into last years playoffs so I think we are more likely to see the Royals go to the ALCS again.
ALDS: Blue Jays beat Rangers
63%
The Blue Jays are one of the hottest teams heading into the playoffs, and although the Rangers, are a solid team they cannot match the Blue Jays offensive which is 130% that of the average MLB team, in runs scored, but the second best offensive team (Yankees) is only 111% of the average. Also with the addition of David Price, and a major improvement from pitchers like Marco Estrada, the Blue Jays have dropped from 404 runs allowed in the first half to 266 post all-star game. With the Jays tremendous improvement the Rangers will have a tough battle to fight.
63%
The Blue Jays are one of the hottest teams heading into the playoffs, and although the Rangers, are a solid team they cannot match the Blue Jays offensive which is 130% that of the average MLB team, in runs scored, but the second best offensive team (Yankees) is only 111% of the average. Also with the addition of David Price, and a major improvement from pitchers like Marco Estrada, the Blue Jays have dropped from 404 runs allowed in the first half to 266 post all-star game. With the Jays tremendous improvement the Rangers will have a tough battle to fight.
ALCS: Blue Jays beat Royals 56% The Blue Jays will be very tough to beat during this years postseason. Their offensive production is led by likely MVP Josh Donaldson, and trade deadline acquisition Troy Tulowitzki who when healthy is one of the best hitters in baseball. They also have much improved pitching as mentioned above, and a group of young players itching to make an impact in the playoffs, these include players like Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman (just returning from the DL), and Kevin Pillar. The Royals bullpen makes them a constant postseason threat however I still have to give this one to the Blue Jays. |
World Series: Cardinals beat Blue Jays
52%
This is close... very, very close. In one game of this series I predict the Cardinals have a 50.9% chance of winning, so in a 4 of 7 series they have a 52.2% chance. Think about this though. On one side of this matchup we have the Cardinals who have been in 3/4 of the playoffs in the 21st century, and who have allowed easily the least runs in baseball. On the opposing side we have the Blue Jays, ending the longest active playoff drought that has lasted since 1994. We will see how the best pitchers in all of baseball stack up against the best lineup. My prediction says that the pitchers will prevail, but this is baseball so anything could happen.