David Ortiz's career will end eventually the question is when. He is signed for 2015 and has options with the Red Sox for both 2016 and 2017. The option for '16 automatically vests if Ortiz reaches 425 PA in 2015.
Using a slightly different new projection pattern in attempt to project when Ortiz is no longer making his money's worth for the Sox, I projected his future offensive WAR for 2015-2018 although there is little to no chance that he will play in 2018. His projected WAR for 2015 and '16 along with it's value in the typical dollars per WAR point value, which is $7.4 million for a DH:
'15. WAR: 1.5 Value: $11.1 Million Actual Contract: $16 million
'16. WAR: 0.5 Value: $3.7 Million Actual Contract: $11-16 million
Many people seeing that David Ortiz will already not make his money's worth in 2015 and 2016 will bring up the question, what about his value as a team leader and clubhouse presence? This is a valid point considering he is the only Red Sox player left who played in '04, '07, '13. In an attempt to put those fans minds at ease lets see what happens if we give him a very generous extra 1.0 WAR for his team spirit and leadership. Ortiz's value then is as follows.
'15. tWAR: 2.5 Value: $18.5 million difference from actual contract: +$2.5 million
'16 tWAR: 1.5 Value: $11.1 million difference from actual contract +$0.1 to -$5.9 million
'17 tWAR: 0.2 Value: $1.5 million difference from actual contract -$9.5 to -$13.5 million
In conclusion Ortiz might be able to earn his money's worth in 2015 and '16, although it is somewhat unlikely for 2016, but for 2017 the cost is not worth the value of the aging slugger.
'15. WAR: 1.5 Value: $11.1 Million Actual Contract: $16 million
'16. WAR: 0.5 Value: $3.7 Million Actual Contract: $11-16 million
Many people seeing that David Ortiz will already not make his money's worth in 2015 and 2016 will bring up the question, what about his value as a team leader and clubhouse presence? This is a valid point considering he is the only Red Sox player left who played in '04, '07, '13. In an attempt to put those fans minds at ease lets see what happens if we give him a very generous extra 1.0 WAR for his team spirit and leadership. Ortiz's value then is as follows.
'15. tWAR: 2.5 Value: $18.5 million difference from actual contract: +$2.5 million
'16 tWAR: 1.5 Value: $11.1 million difference from actual contract +$0.1 to -$5.9 million
'17 tWAR: 0.2 Value: $1.5 million difference from actual contract -$9.5 to -$13.5 million
In conclusion Ortiz might be able to earn his money's worth in 2015 and '16, although it is somewhat unlikely for 2016, but for 2017 the cost is not worth the value of the aging slugger.