Wild Card: Cubs beat Pittsburgh Pirates
The cubs and pirates are a very equal matchup in this game and if I had disregarded factors like their head on matchup and the starting pitchers for each team I would have said the Cubs had a 50.3% chance of winning which is almost like saying its the flip of a coin, but the Cubs have won their last 13 games that Jake Arrieta has pitched in, and while his opposition Gerrit Cole has been solid as well, he is not nearly as lights out as Arrieta. On top of this the Cubs have won the season series against the Pirates 11-8, so the Cubs have a distinct advantage, but at 54% this is by no means a sure thing. I personally am not a fan of the 1 game wild card playoff, but there is no denying that it is always exciting.
This matchup is another very equal one, but my predictions say that the Cardinals have a 51.6% chance in any given game. In a series of five the math translates this to a 53% chance. This will make this series a very exciting one. Although the Cardinals clearly have a much better record this year the cubs have been doing better of late. Since September 1 the Cubs are 21-9 to the Cardinals 15-14. However in the season series the Cards have the 11-8 advantage, so while their are clear arguments for either side the Cards are given the advantage here.
NLDS: Mets beat Dodgers
The Dodgers have won their division three years in a row now, but have not won the pennant or the world series in that time. I wrote earlier this year that the duo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke could very well be the best 1-2 pitching punch in MLB history, and I stand by that. However the dodgers have little to show after them in the rotation and have hit a few bumps recently. The Mets on the other hand have a deeper rotation and although getting swept by the Phillies is not a good sign the shakiest part of their year was way back in May and June. They have a very minimal head on sample size, but in the seven games they did play together the Mets took 4 to the Dodgers 3, so my probability has a 58% chance of victory for the Mets.
The Mets are a solid team this year, but the Cardinals once again are superb. The Mets have had trouble lately even though they have played 4 teams with winning pct. under .450, in the last five series they have lost four of these series, so with a team 2.92 ERA led by starting pitchers John Lackey (2.69), and Jaime Garcia (2.43), as well as relievers Trevor Rosenthal (2.10) and Kevin Siegrist (2.20). The Cardinals have great odds in this series as a seven game series the Cardinals have a 65% chance of winning the series.
The odds of the Cardinals winning the pennant is 34.5%